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Empirische Wirtschaftssforschung C: Business Cycle Analysis


Contact

If you will have a question, please use this link to contact Ms. Prof. Dr. Hildegard Breig.


Course Material

The course material is available in the share folder of the faculty.

Textbooks

  • European Central Bank, 2013, An Assessment of Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, in: ECB Monthly Buletin, May, pp. 70-83
  • González Cabanillas, L., and Terzi, A., 2012, The Accuracy of the European Commission’s Forecasts reexamined, Economic Papers 476,
European Commission, Brussels
  • Heilemann, U., and Stekler, H.O., 2013, Has the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?, in: German Economic Review, vol.14, issue 2, pp. 235-253
  • Van Ruth, F., Schouten, B., and Wekker, R., 2005, The Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer. Methodological Aspects; Concept, Cycle Computation and Indicator Selection, 2nd draft, October


More information regarding the course

Credits: 5 ECTS

Degree programm:
Bachelor-degree
faculaty business and economics; recommend participation to the students from the 4th semester

Duration of the course:
one semester, 4 SWS

Learning outcomes:

Deepining students' knowledge about causes, measurement and forecastig of economic fluctuations.

Students will be able to:

  • describe majors views of the business cylcle
  • search out economic data as well as information about the meaning of data and how they are derived
  • characterize a broad range of business cycle indicators
  • interpret economic reports of relevant organisations
  • assess available forecasts
  • make their own judgement of the economy's current situation and its outlook.


Grading:
Final written exam (100%)
Information

The lecture "Business Cycle Analysis" hosted by Ms. Prof. Dr. Hildegard Breig takes place conventionally from the fourth semester up to the sixth semester.


Topics


1. Introduction

2. History of Business Cycle Analysis

    • Theoretical Approaches
    • Empirical Work

3. Business Cycle Measuement

    • Fluctuations of Real GDP and its Demand Components
    • Categories of Business Cycle Indicators

4. Graphical Representation

    • The Dutch Business Cycle Tracer
    • The European Business Cycle Clock

5. Business Cycle Forecasts

    • The OECD's Economic Outlook
    • The European Commission's Economic Forecast
    • The ECB's Staff Projections for the Euro Area
    • Evaluation of Forecasts






Dates

In the summer semester 2015 the lecture is taking place:

lecture part Day Time Room
Part 1 Monday 04.15 - 05.45 pm C105
Part 2 Tuesday 2.15 - 3.45 pm C105



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